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Letters to a Young Manager


The pain of delays, #183
LTYM >

Please note that this letter is in-process; the following are my notes

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Airbus 380 delays and cost overruns that Ross Pettit of Thoughtworks cited on Oct. 4. Also note the STC Capital Campaign project figures:

87% - the time overrun for the Capital Campaign project
148% - the cost overrun for the CC project

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/14/business/worldbusiness/14airbus.html?ei=5070&en=fc1cfcc0b71b1489&ex=1160193600&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1160060464-QxIXThTAO61160QE89M6Fg

September 14, 2006

More Delays Possible at Airbus

By BLOOMBERG NEWS

Airbus may delay delivery of its A380 airliner by more than a year amid rising production costs, said Mike Turner, chief executive of BAE Systems, which owns 20 percent of Airbus.

“I would be surprised if there were not more delays,” Mr. Turner said at a news conference in London yesterday after BAE announced that its earnings had increased 28 percent. Mr. Turner is trying to sell his company’s Airbus stake.

The European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company, or EADS, which owns the rest of Airbus, said in June that the A380 delays would cut operating profit by 2 billion euros ($2.5 billion) from 2007 to 2010. Airbus, which is based in Toulouse, France, is counting on the A380 to maintain its lead over Boeing in commercial aircraft. Airbus now trails Boeing in orders for the first time in five years.

Asked for a reaction to Mr. Turner’s comment, an EADS spokesman, Michael Hauger, said, “I don’t know where he would know that from, because the audit of the A380 is still under way, and as long as that’s ongoing, we have no result.”

Will Mackie, an analyst at Mainfirst in London, said: “It’s conceivable that there may be additional delays, but my view is they’re likely to be marginal within the time frame that has already been announced.”

Shares of EADS fell 28 cents, or 1.2 percent, to 23.4 euros in Paris. The stock has lost 27 percent this year on investors’ concerns about delays on the A380 and in the development of the new A350 to challenge Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner. Boeing shares rose $2.09, to $76.35, in New York yesterday.

Airbus said three months ago that the complexity of customizing the wiring installations on the planes for each customer of the 555-seat plane would result in cost overruns and later deliveries than originally planned. BAE knew of major delays on the A380’s 15 months before they were announced, but didn’t know then about the amount of the cost overruns, Mr. Turner said.

The A380 was originally projected to cost 12 billion euros ($15 billion). That figure was equivalent to about $12 billion when the project for the plane was started in December 2000, though Airbus announced in December 2004 that it would cost an additional 1.45 billion euros, including development of the A380 freighter version.

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References...

Takeaways:

Delays cost real money, more than expenses

Discussion Questions:


For Further Reading:





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